S&P 500, teetering, fails at September resistance

Weekly Review: MAAD, CPFL indicator analysis

Daily S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

daily, emini, volume

Weekly S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

emini, cumulative, volume

Using weekly statistics, after it peaked the week ending April 29, 2011, Weekly MAAD has yet to revisit that key resistance level even though the S&P 500 rallied another 7.5% into the September 2012 highs. Weekly MAAD failed to better its 2011 highs in March 2012 and again in September a month ago. That movement is a longer-term suggestion Smart Money, while half-heartedly participating in this market during rallies, has done so with increasing reluctance. And history suggests such hesitancy does not bode well for the bullish cause on the longer-term cycles. For those inclined to point out to us that the Weekly MAAD Ratio is currently near “Neutral,” we must suggest in return that just prior to the last big decline in the 2007-2009 bear market in September 2008, the MAAD Weekly Ratio was plotted at .90 and merely eroded down to .54 as the S&P 500 lost nearly 50% of its value by March 2009.

Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
 

10/22

10/23

10/24

10/25

10/26

10/26

10/31

S&P 500 Index

BUY 1448.75

BUY 1449.34

BUY 1451.06

BUY 1452.98

BUY 1453.67

SELL 1405.79

SELL 1269.05

Dow Jones Industrials

BUY 13498.98

BUY 13503.62

BUY 13509.42

BUY 13519.67

BUY 13522.17

SELL 13110.81

SELL 12141.09

NASDAQ Composite

BUY 3094.23

BUY 3092.77

BUY 3093.55

BUY 3093.08

BUY 3086.99

BUY 3116.21

SELL 2716.62

Value Line Index

BUY 3069.93

BUY 3070.54

BUY 3075.74

BUY 3081.45

BUY 3084.05

SELL 2972.27

SELL 2723.41

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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