Gold risk falling below $1,700; natural gas faces resistance

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 10/19/2012

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 176810. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Upside Targets = 1807.10 – 1826.30.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1755.60. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1755.60 or higher.
  • December Gold dropped lower on Thursday as it was unable to build on Wednesday’s modest bullish momentum as it dropped lower while impacting the daily Support Bollinger Band, closing at its second lowest level in the last 4 weeks.
  • As mentioned in yesterday’s report, gold will need to see extensive support above this week’s low of $1,729.70 or otherwise it will move lower next week as it goes after our Q4 downside objective of $1,697.70.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/16/12 @ 1.3001. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/16/12 @ 1.3060. Upside Targets = 1.3263 – 1.3357.
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3061. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3061 or lower.
  • The December Euro FX dropped back lower on Thursday after Wednesday’s gap higher trading session as the market closed back inside the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
  • The euro has been mostly range bound over the past month as it struggles to break through to new six-months highs but continually finds support above 1.28 as the ECB continues to reiterate that it will not allow the Eurozone countries to fail.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0090
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0207
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/17/12 @ 1451.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/17/12 @ 1457.00. Upside Targets = 1469.00 – 1482.25.
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1459.75.
  • The December S&Ps stopped just one tick shy of 1460, the resistance price mentioned in Wednesday morning’s report, before falling back to close in the lower 40% of the day’s range after Google’s weak earnings report.
  • The S&Ps should have a solid move back to the upside on Friday to wrap up a surprisingly bullish first week of earnings as the market looks to extend its gains to new contract highs above 1469.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50

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