Gold risk falling below $1,700; natural gas faces resistance

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 10/19/2012

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 112.92. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/18/12 @ 112.42. Downside Targets = 110.86 – 109.36.
  • December Brent Crude sank lower in early trading on Thursday but managed to settle back near the daily mid-range after finding some intraday support near a Short Term retracement target of $111.64.
  • Look for Brent to move out to the side on Friday in what should be a very thin trading session.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.65
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 12.02

WTI Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/17/12 @ 92.80. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.91 – 95.83.
  • December WTI Crude Oil has narrowed the spread between itself and Brent to just over $20 as it repeatedly found support near last week’s mid-range and it moved back higher in later trading to close in the upper 75% of the daily trading range.
  • If WTI is able to build on Thursday’s late momentum, this market could push north to new weekly highs and work to impact the daily Resistance Bollinger Band by the close of trading.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.37
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.11
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.33

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/16/12 @ 3.446. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/16/12 @ 3.437. Downside Targets = 3.338 – 3.263.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.592. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @3.592 or higher.
  • November Natural Gas moved sharply higher on Thursday despite a larger than expected storage injection as traders keyed on lower year-over-year numbers.
  • Unless the current bulls can push the November natural gas prices to close above $3.70, look for increased resistance to come back into the market as it tries to re-enter our upside resistance zone of $3.602–$3.747.
  • Projected Daily Range: .134
  • Projected Weekly Range: .349
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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