KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 176810. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Upside Targets = 1807.10 – 1826.30.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1755.60. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1755.60 or higher.
- December Gold dropped lower on Thursday as it was unable to build on Wednesday’s modest bullish momentum as it dropped lower while impacting the daily Support Bollinger Band, closing at its second lowest level in the last 4 weeks.
- As mentioned in yesterday’s report, gold will need to see extensive support above this week’s low of $1,729.70 or otherwise it will move lower next week as it goes after our Q4 downside objective of $1,697.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/16/12 @ 1.3001. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/16/12 @ 1.3060. Upside Targets = 1.3263 – 1.3357.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3061. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3061 or lower.
- The December Euro FX dropped back lower on Thursday after Wednesday’s gap higher trading session as the market closed back inside the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- The euro has been mostly range bound over the past month as it struggles to break through to new six-months highs but continually finds support above 1.28 as the ECB continues to reiterate that it will not allow the Eurozone countries to fail.
- Projected Daily Range: .0090
- Projected Weekly Range: .0207
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/17/12 @ 1451.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/17/12 @ 1457.00. Upside Targets = 1469.00 – 1482.25.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1459.75.
- The December S&Ps stopped just one tick shy of 1460, the resistance price mentioned in Wednesday morning’s report, before falling back to close in the lower 40% of the day’s range after Google’s weak earnings report.
- The S&Ps should have a solid move back to the upside on Friday to wrap up a surprisingly bullish first week of earnings as the market looks to extend its gains to new contract highs above 1469.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 112.92. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/18/12 @ 112.42. Downside Targets = 110.86 – 109.36.
- December Brent Crude sank lower in early trading on Thursday but managed to settle back near the daily mid-range after finding some intraday support near a Short Term retracement target of $111.64.
- Look for Brent to move out to the side on Friday in what should be a very thin trading session.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.65
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/17/12 @ 92.80. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.91 – 95.83.
- December WTI Crude Oil has narrowed the spread between itself and Brent to just over $20 as it repeatedly found support near last week’s mid-range and it moved back higher in later trading to close in the upper 75% of the daily trading range.
- If WTI is able to build on Thursday’s late momentum, this market could push north to new weekly highs and work to impact the daily Resistance Bollinger Band by the close of trading.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.37
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.11
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/16/12 @ 3.446. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/16/12 @ 3.437. Downside Targets = 3.338 – 3.263.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.592. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @3.592 or higher.
- November Natural Gas moved sharply higher on Thursday despite a larger than expected storage injection as traders keyed on lower year-over-year numbers.
- Unless the current bulls can push the November natural gas prices to close above $3.70, look for increased resistance to come back into the market as it tries to re-enter our upside resistance zone of $3.602–$3.747.
- Projected Daily Range: .134
- Projected Weekly Range: .349
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
