KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/17/12 @ 1451.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/17/12 @ 1457.00. Upside Targets = 1469.00 – 1482.25.
- The December S&Ps moved higher once again on Wednesday as they logged their best three-day gain in a month as positive earnings continue to propel the market higher.
- Should the S&Ps move through the recent ceiling of 1470, look for this market to push through the 1500 mark as it goes after “OUR YEARLY UPSIDE OBJECTIVE” of 1512.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 176810. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ $1,765.00. Upside Targets = 1807.10 – 1826.30.
- VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ $1,755.60. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1755.60 or higher.
- December Gold was unable to spark a convincing rally on Wednesday as it only posted modest gains while failing to fill the weekly close gap left from last week at 1759.70.
- Like other risk assets, gold needs to see strong support above Wednesday’s low of $1,744.00 or otherwise continue a bit lower in the short term.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/16/12 @ 1.3001. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/16/12 @ 1.3060. Upside Targets = 1.3263 – 1.3357.
- VRCB generated on Wednesday while generating new highs on the current move @ 1.3147.
- The December Euro FX gapped sharply higher on Wednesday in overnight trading on its way to new four-week highs while spending basically its entire trading range above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- The euro has been bolstered recently by encouraging signs that Spain will relent and accept bailout money in order to quit stringing the crisis along further which strengthens the case for our upside objectives being achieved.
- Projected Daily Range: .0095
- Projected Weekly Range: .0207
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 112.92. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 113.41. Upside Targets = 117.15 – 117.88.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 112.92 or lower.
- December Brent Crude dropped lower for the second straight day on Wednesday in another tight trading session as sellers continue to persistently drop the market when it trades above $114.
- Buying and selling pressure have effectively neutralized price action over the previous six trading sessions and unless the market can break and close below this week’s current low of $112.46, look for sideways price action heading into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.64
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/17/12 @ 92.80. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.91 – 95.83.
- December WTI Crude Oil logged its third straight day of modest gains on Wednesday despite larger than expected builds in inventory but closed below the day’s mid-range.
- WTI should expect to see lower prices throughout most of Thursday, but unless the market closes below $91.42 the Short Term bias should continue to be slightly bullish.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.53
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.11
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/16/12 @ 3.446. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/16/12 @ 3.437. Downside Targets = 3.338 – 3.263.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 3.398.
- November Natural Gas was resurgent on Wednesday after being unable to follow through on the early week declines as it closed back in the upper 70% of the day’s trading range.
- As mentioned in Wednesday’s morning report, unless natural gas can continue to break lower and prove that Wednesday’s gain was nothing more than short covering, natural gas may continue on back to the upside as the bull trend could remain intact.
- Projected Daily Range: .111
- Projected Weekly Range: .349
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
