KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 176810. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1749.50 – 1738.00.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 1729.70.
- December Gold dropped sharply lower on Monday as it followed through on last Friday’s bearish price action on its way to new five-week lows after closing below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- Gold has entered into the upper echelon of the Short Term support zone located between $1,732.50–$1,719.90. Should the market hold this zone, it could soon see the end to the current seven-day correction and move back higher to finally crack the $1,800/oz. level for the first time in 2012.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1.2944. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1.2892. Downside Targets = 1.2734 – 1.2648.
- Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 1.3001. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 1.3001 or higher.
- The December Euro FX was able to regain some of its overnight losses sustained on Monday as it closed slightly above the daily mid-range, signaling bearish divergent price action.
- Look for the euro to log solid gains on Tuesday as the overall risk assets should see a spike in prices that will lead to a Short Term TREND REVERSAL back to bullish after a true correction was unable to play out.
- Projected Daily Range: .0095
- Projected Weekly Range: .0207
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1447.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1436.00. Downside Targets = 1421.50 – 1417.00.
- Bullish OVB generated on Monday after making new lows on current move @ 1416.50. Downside Targets over 135% achieved.
- The December S&Ps logged massive gains on Monday after violating last week’s low to settle just off the day’s high following strong earnings from the financial sector.
- As earning season gets underway look for mostly volatile trading sessions and the market to move mostly sideways between 1400 and 1450 throughout the next few weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 112.92. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 113.41. Upside Targets = 117.15 – 117.88.
- December Brent Crude erased some early session losses as it put in a late day rally to close just off the session’s high signaling that Monday’s confirmation of a top could in fact be a false top should last week’s high of $114.95 be exceeded on Tuesday.
- The strong close supports a move back above $115 on Tuesday to new four-week highs and if Brent is able to close above $115 it will support a weekly upside objective of $117.80.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.35
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 91.01. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.56 – 95.72.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 91.01 or lower.
- November WTI Crude Oil followed through on this weekend’s projection of a retest of $90 and then found strong support as it moved back higher to close in the upper 80% of the day’s trading range.
- WTI continues to lag Brent as the spread has widened to $22.55 as of Monday’s close and current price action suggest for the spread to widen even further as WTI may find it harder to log consistent gains.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.57
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.11
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 3.347. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
- Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.446. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 3.446 or lower.
- November Natural Gas sank lower on Monday, leaving a weekly close gap after Friday’s bearish VRCB formation as a profit taking sell-off got underway as projected in this Monday’s report.
- Look to sell all rallies aggressively on Tuesday expecting Monday’s low of $3.447 to be violated and eventually fall back near last week’s low of $3.327 at a minimum.
- Projected Daily Range: .131
- Projected Weekly Range: .349
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
