Natural gas could see quick drop on profit-taking

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 10/15/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 176810. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1749.50 – 1738.00.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 1753.50. Downside Targets 85% achieved.
  • December Gold dropped sharply lower on Friday to log its first double-digit losing week since early July as last week generated a double VRCB combination after the $200/oz. move.
  • Gold has more than an 82% probability of violating last week’s low and should continue lower into the current correction as it tracks our downside objectives.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1.2944. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1.2892. Downside Targets = 1.2734 – 1.2648.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3001. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.3001 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX did indeed move higher on Friday but was unable to close above the 1.30 mark deemed necessary in order for this market to generate a sustainable rally.
  • Friday’s weak close indicates that the euro should see bearish price action on Monday and fall back below 1.29.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0092
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0207
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1447.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1436.00. Downside Targets = 1421.50 – 1417.00.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 1420.00.
  • The December S&Ps had their largest one week decline in almost four months last week as they settled at their lowest level in five weeks as weak Q3 demand has investors worried about this round of earnings season.
  • As mentioned in last week’s report, now that the S&Ps have broken 1420, this market should have no problem trading down to the 1400 level and perhaps further should bulls back off and sellers take hold of this market on earnings weakness.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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