KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 112.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 113.41. Upside Targets = 117.15 – 117.88.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 114.95. Upside Targets 80% achieved.
- December Brent Crude Oil continued to rise higher on Thursday as it neared the daily Resistance Bollinger Band to close at its highest level since the market dropped more than $10 in three sessions nearly a month ago.
- Look for Brent to make a move above $116 in early trading on Friday before finding heavy resistance and moving out to the side going into the weekend. Note: if Brent can close above $115 tomorrow it would set up for an extension of the recent gains and possibly take this market near the $120 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.82
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 91.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.56 – 95.72.
- Inside compression day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 91.01. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 91.01 or lower.
- November WTI Crude Oil tried to regain some of the lost momentum from Wednesday’s weak trading session as it last traded near Tuesday’s close setting up for a likely move higher to end the week.
- While the gap between WTI and Brent remains near record levels, if WTI can close above $93.25 on Friday look for this market to pick up momentum before the contract rolls and makes a move above $95 next week.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.52
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/11/12 @ 3.516. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new contract highs @ 3.634.
- November Natural Gas shot up higher on Thursday to new 2012 highs as the storage injection was less (72) than most were expecting (80).
- With bulls still in total control of this market look for the move to continue on higher into our resistance zone with a topside expectation of $3.747.
- Projected Daily Range: .139
- Projected Weekly Range: .328
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 176810. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1749.50 – 1738.00.
- C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1776.70. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1776.70 or higher.
- December Gold logged a slow and methodical advance on Thursday, closing at its highest level since Monday and ends a four-day skid of lower lows.
- Unless gold can make a serious push higher on Friday and close above $1,777.50 gold may yet be in trouble of falling into a further correction next week down to the lower end of our downside targets before finding support.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1.2944. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1.2892. Downside Targets = 1.2734 – 1.2648.
- Bullish OVB generated on Thursday after making new lows on the current move @ 1.2833.
- The December Euro FX followed through on Thursday morning’s report as it found solid footing near the previous two weeks lows and roared back to close over 100 points off its lows.
- Should the euro follow through on Thursday’s rally and close above 1.30 this week, look for this market to make a move back above 1.32.
- Projected Daily Range: .0114
- Projected Weekly Range: .0247
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1447.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1436.00. Downside Targets = 1421.50 – 1417.00.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday making new lows on current move @ 1421.25.
- The December S&Ps traded just one tick through our initial downside objective on Thursday before moving back almost 20 points higher on a better than expect unemployment report; however, this rally proved to be unsustainable and the market settled below the day’s mid-range.
- The S&Ps will need to make a move higher on Friday and close back above Thursday’s high of 1539.25 or else set itself up for a continuation of the current correction down near or below 1400.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
