Natural gas bulls in control as storage numbers miss expectations

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 10/12/12

KEY TERMS
OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 112.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 113.41. Upside Targets = 117.15 – 117.88.
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 114.95. Upside Targets 80% achieved.
  • December Brent Crude Oil continued to rise higher on Thursday as it neared the daily Resistance Bollinger Band to close at its highest level since the market dropped more than $10 in three sessions nearly a month ago.
  • Look for Brent to make a move above $116 in early trading on Friday before finding heavy resistance and moving out to the side going into the weekend. Note: if Brent can close above $115 tomorrow it would set up for an extension of the recent gains and possibly take this market near the $120 threshold.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.82
  • Projected Monthly Range: 12.02

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 91.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.56 – 95.72.
  • Inside compression day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 91.01. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 91.01 or lower.
  • November WTI Crude Oil tried to regain some of the lost momentum from Wednesday’s weak trading session as it last traded near Tuesday’s close setting up for a likely move higher to end the week.
  • While the gap between WTI and Brent remains near record levels, if WTI can close above $93.25 on Friday look for this market to pick up momentum before the contract rolls and makes a move above $95 next week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.52
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.33

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/11/12 @ 3.516. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
  • Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new contract highs @ 3.634.
  • November Natural Gas shot up higher on Thursday to new 2012 highs as the storage injection was less (72) than most were expecting (80).
  • With bulls still in total control of this market look for the move to continue on higher into our resistance zone with a topside expectation of $3.747.
  • Projected Daily Range: .139
  • Projected Weekly Range: .328
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

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