Oil looking for a bottom after month’s $13 decline

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 10/11/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 112.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 113.41. Upside Targets = 117.15 – 117.88.
  • New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 114.41. Upside Target over 80% achieved.
  • December Brent Crude settled lower on the session Wednesday after falling just short of $115 to close in the lower 35% of the day’s trading range.
  • Wednesday’s weak settle should be trumped by the bullish price action and expect Brent to continue to move higher on Thursday and break through $115 to achieved the weekly upside objective of $115.76.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.36
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.82
  • Projected Monthly Range: 12.02

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 91.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.56 – 95.72.
  • November WTI Crude Oil was unable to sustain the early session rally after trading through the last two weeks’ highs and settled just off the session low.
  • Look for WTI to rebound on Thursday and make a move back above $93 as the oil market looks to try and find a Short Term bottom after a $13 decline in the last month.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.65
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.33

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 3.347. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.516.
  • November Natural Gas failed to generate much movement on Wednesday as it traded within its tightest range in three weeks as buying and selling pressure neutralized the market indicating that we may be close to a Short Term top.
  • Should Wednesday’s low of 3.431 be violated on Thursday, look for this market to drop lower to once again challenge the previous two weeks’ low before finding support just above $3.20.
  • Projected Daily Range: .119
  • Projected Weekly Range: .328
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

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