KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 112.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 113.41. Upside Targets = 117.15 – 117.88.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 114.41. Upside Target over 80% achieved.
- December Brent Crude settled lower on the session Wednesday after falling just short of $115 to close in the lower 35% of the day’s trading range.
- Wednesday’s weak settle should be trumped by the bullish price action and expect Brent to continue to move higher on Thursday and break through $115 to achieved the weekly upside objective of $115.76.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.36
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.82
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 91.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.56 – 95.72.
- November WTI Crude Oil was unable to sustain the early session rally after trading through the last two weeks’ highs and settled just off the session low.
- Look for WTI to rebound on Thursday and make a move back above $93 as the oil market looks to try and find a Short Term bottom after a $13 decline in the last month.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.65
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 3.347. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
- Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.516.
- November Natural Gas failed to generate much movement on Wednesday as it traded within its tightest range in three weeks as buying and selling pressure neutralized the market indicating that we may be close to a Short Term top.
- Should Wednesday’s low of 3.431 be violated on Thursday, look for this market to drop lower to once again challenge the previous two weeks’ low before finding support just above $3.20.
- Projected Daily Range: .119
- Projected Weekly Range: .328
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 176810. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1749.50 – 1738.00
- December Gold finished Wednesday’s session virtually unchanged as the daily Support Bollinger Band helped prop the market up after dropping $40 from the recent highs.
- Gold has struggled to find those willing to short the precious metal over the past two months and bulls should be aggressively buying this market on the first close above the high of the low day.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1.2944. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1.2892. Downside Targets = 1.2734 – 1.2648
- The December Euro FX settled higher on Wednesday but ran into trouble in electronic trading in an overall subdued trading session.
- Look for new lows for the week to be made during Thursday’s session before finding support near last week’s low and making a move back to the upside to end this week’s losing streak.
- Projected Daily Range: .0101
- Projected Weekly Range: .0247
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1447.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1436.00. Downside Targets = 1421.50 – 1417.00
- The December S&Ps continued their 4 day skid on Wednesday as they impacted the daily Support Bollinger Band and breaking through last week’s low to close at its lowest level since 09/11.
- Look for the S&Ps to hit our downside objective on Thursday before finding support above 1414.50 and moving back higher.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
