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Syria/Turkey dispute reverses crude trend

Long-term supply situation still bearish

By Dominick A. Chirichella

October 10, 2012 • Reprints

Global equities have been on the defensive for the last twenty four hours as shown in the EMI Global Equity Table below. The only bourse that gained value over the last twenty four hours was China which had a minor gain in a global market that saw most all other bourses drifting lower. The EMI Index is now lower by 0.5% for the week resulting in the year to date gain narrowing to 6.5%. The rankings have remained the same with Germany still on top of the leader board with a year to date gain of 22.5% followed by Hong Kong and the US which are both still showing double digit gains for the year. Global equities have been a negative price driver for oil and the boarder commodity complex over the last day or so.

The weekly inventory cycle has been delayed by one day due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. The weekly oil inventory cycle will begin with the release of the API inventory report Wednesday afternoon and with the more widely followed EIA oil inventory report being released Thursday morning at 11:00 AM EST. With the global economy and oil fundamentals becoming more the focus of the trading and investing community this week's oil inventory report could be a price catalyst especially if the actual outcome shows a large deviation from the projections. However, any inventory reaction could be short lived if the macroeconomic data remains the main focus of most market players.

My projections for this week’s inventory report are summarized in the following table. I am expecting the US refining sector to hold relatively steady even as there have been a rash of refinery issues over the last several weeks. I am expecting a modest build in crude oil inventories, and a build in both gasoline and distillate fuel stocks. I am expecting crude oil stocks to increase by about 2 million barrels. If the actual numbers are in sync with my projections the year over year comparison for crude oil will now show a surplus of 29.1 million barrels while the overhang versus the five year average for the same week will come in around 35 million barrels.

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About the Author

Energy Market Analysis is published daily by the Energy Management Institute 1324 Lexington Avenue, # 322, New York, NY 10128. Copyright 2008. Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited. Subscriptions: $129 for annual orders. Editor in Chief: Dominick Chirichella, Publisher: Stephen Gloyd, Editor Sal Umek.

EMA has authorized Futures to publish its report once a week on Wednesday prior to the EIA release. For information on how to receive the report everyday look below.

PH: (888) 871-1207

Email info@energyinstitution.org

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Information and opinions expressed in this publication are intended to provide general market awareness. The Energy Management Institute and the Energy Market Analysis are not responsible for any business actions, market transactions, or decisions made by its readers based on information published in this report. Readers of the Energy Market Analysis use this market information at their own risk.

This message and any attachments relate to the official business of the Energy Management Institute ("EMI") and are proprietary to EMI. This e-mail transmission may contain information that is proprietary, privileged and/or confidential and is intended exclusively for the person(s) to whom it is addressed. Any use, copying, retention or disclosure by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's designees is strictly prohibited.

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oil 6597crude oil 3328oil prices 1774International Monetary Fund 1712Reuters 1669Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries 1337crude oil 1033oil demand 436World Bank 400crude oil inventories 349oil supply 250crude oil stocks 235oil inventory report 173Inventories 171Cushing 91media airwaves 58oil fundamentals 39Middle east 33Albert Einstein 21weekly oil inventory report 11monthly oil report 11Supply/demand 7weekly oil inventory cycle 4oil demand projections 3elevated level oil inventories 1monthly oil projections 1oil export level 1

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