KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1824.00 – 1829.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1768.10. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1768.10 or lower.
- December Gold initially sank lower on Monday, following through on Friday’s bearish OVB before erasing some of the losses heading into the close as the market finished up right at the day’s mid-point.
- After failing to violate last week’s low and finding strong support just below $1,770, look for gold to continue its rally higher back into the recent distribution zone it has been stuck in just below $1,800/oz. on Tuesday.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/04/12 @ 1.2980. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/04/12 @ 1.3028. Upside Targets = 1.3198 – 1.3301
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.2944. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.2944 or lower.
- The December Euro FX settled lower on Monday following continued concern over European debt mounting and the ability for it to be handled without causing an increase in the already massive deficits or another global recession.
- Overall the euro has received continued support by both traders and the ECB head that has pushed the market higher over the last 2 months and the trend should remain the same over the coming weeks as this market should eventually seek new contract highs.
- Projected Daily Range: .0097
- Projected Weekly Range: .0247
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 1444.75. Upside Targets = 1465.00 – 1481.25
- VRCB generated on Monday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a range violation @ 1447.25. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 1447.25 or lower.
- The December S&Ps fell lower following Friday’s weak close in a quiet session on Monday because of the Columbus Day holiday, which generated a 40% reduction in trading volume.
- Like the euro, expect the S&Ps to log an overall gain this week and go after new 2012 highs above 1475 before finding heavy resistance around 1490.
- Projected Daily Range: 12.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 112.70. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.22 – 101.89.
- Inside compression day generated on Monday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 112.70 or higher OR a range violation above 113.40.
- November Brent Crude opened the session with a sharp drop lower in overnight trading before rallying higher to close just fractionally lower but above the day’s mid-range.
- Look for Brent to continue higher on Tuesday and go after the previous two weeks high at $113.40 before finding heavy resistance just above $115.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.42
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.82
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/03/12 @ 91.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 88.94. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- November WTI crude oil traded mostly lower on Monday in a subdued trading session yet logged a sizable rally in the second half of trading to finish the session in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
- Look for WTI to continue the bullish momentum heading into Tuesday as global economic concerns are trumped by an escalating crisis in the Middle East.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.47
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 3.347. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.347 or lower.
- November Natural Gas was unable to violate last week’s low of $3.325, stopping just two ticks above it and then rallying strongly in the second half of trading to settle back above $3.40.
- The strong bullish price action in natural gas should help give this market the support it needs in the near term to push through last week’s highs of $3.546 and trade to the upside targets.
- Projected Daily Range: .102
- Projected Weekly Range: .328
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
