Gold finds support near $1,770; oil remains bullish

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 10/09/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1824.00 – 1829.50.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1768.10. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1768.10 or lower.
  • December Gold initially sank lower on Monday, following through on Friday’s bearish OVB before erasing some of the losses heading into the close as the market finished up right at the day’s mid-point.
  • After failing to violate last week’s low and finding strong support just below $1,770, look for gold to continue its rally higher back into the recent distribution zone it has been stuck in just below $1,800/oz. on Tuesday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/04/12 @ 1.2980. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/04/12 @ 1.3028. Upside Targets = 1.3198 – 1.3301
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.2944. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.2944 or lower.
  • The December Euro FX settled lower on Monday following continued concern over European debt mounting and the ability for it to be handled without causing an increase in the already massive deficits or another global recession.
  • Overall the euro has received continued support by both traders and the ECB head that has pushed the market higher over the last 2 months and the trend should remain the same over the coming weeks as this market should eventually seek new contract highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0097
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0247
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 1444.75. Upside Targets = 1465.00 – 1481.25
  • VRCB generated on Monday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a range violation @ 1447.25. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 1447.25 or lower.
  • The December S&Ps fell lower following Friday’s weak close in a quiet session on Monday because of  the Columbus Day holiday, which generated a 40% reduction in trading volume.
  • Like the euro, expect the S&Ps to log an overall gain this week and go after new 2012 highs above 1475 before finding heavy resistance around 1490.
  • Projected Daily Range: 12.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 31.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50

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