KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1824.00 – 1829.50.
- Bearish OVB generated on Friday after making new highs on current move @ 1798.10. Upside Target 70% achieved.
- December Gold dropped lower on Friday after making new 2012 highs as it struggled all week to break through the $1,800/oz. threshold, generating a VRCB week and a weekly Parrish Hicks proprietary sell signal.
- Gold has been a little top-heavy for the previous three weeks and as we have mentioned for the past week, until this market can close above $1,800, it may see a sizable Short-Term correction back near $1,728.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/04/12 @ 1.2980. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/04/12 @ 1.3028. Upside Targets = 1.3198 – 1.3301
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1.3080. Upside Targets 60% achieved.
- The December Euro FX continued higher on Friday as it made new 12 session highs in a somewhat modest trading range as the bullish volatility is beginning to temper.
- The euro struggled at the current levels just a few weeks ago and unless it can build on the momentum generated last week, this market may once again struggle above 1.31.
- Projected Daily Range: .0087
- Projected Weekly Range: .0247
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 1444.75. Upside Targets = 1465.00 – 1481.25
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1466.00. Upside Target 60% achieved.
- The December S&Ps moved just past the initial upside price objective listed in multiple morning reports last week @ 1465.00 and ran into the daily Resistance Bollinger Band before dropping to close in the lower 30% of the day’s trading range.
- Look for the S&Ps to drop lower in early week trading before finding strong support just above 1445 and then resuming its grind higher.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 112.70. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.22 – 101.89.
- Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 112.70. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 112.70 or higher OR a range violation above 113.40.
- November Brent Crude increased the spread once again on Friday, moving the distance between itself and WTI to more than $22 yet closing right around the day’s mid-range.
- Look for Brent to move sideways to lower this week as tensions in the Middle East have been escalating yet demand is at record lows.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.51
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.82
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/03/12 @ 91.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 88.94. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- Inside compression day generated on Friday.
- November WTI Crude Oil dropped lower on Friday following a spike in prices because of ongoing Syria-Turkey conflict threatening supply to close back below $90 on the weekly level for the first time since July 13.
- After generating a weekly bearish OVB, look for WTI to follow through on the 78% probability of violating $87.70 by Friday’s close as it works toward our initial Intermediate Term downside target of $86.44.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.51
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 3.347. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.347 or lower.
- November Natural Gas broke down to make new four-day lows on Friday and partially confirm a Short Term top in the market before finding ample support between last week’s high of $3.546 and Monday’s low to rally and settle back above the daily mid-range.
- Look for natural gas to continue higher throughout this week as the possible record low temps in the north and mid-west should drive short-term demand and push this market to the Intermediate Term upside resistance zone at $3.602 – $3.747.
- Projected Daily Range: .127
- Projected Weekly Range: .328
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
