Gold faces short-term correction to $1,728

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 10/08/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1824.00 – 1829.50.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Friday after making new highs on current move @ 1798.10. Upside Target 70% achieved.
  • December Gold dropped lower on Friday after making new 2012 highs as it struggled all week to break through the $1,800/oz. threshold, generating a VRCB week and a weekly Parrish Hicks proprietary sell signal.
  • Gold has been a little top-heavy for the previous three weeks and as we have mentioned for the past week, until this market can close above $1,800, it may see a sizable Short-Term correction back near $1,728.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/04/12 @ 1.2980. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/04/12 @ 1.3028. Upside Targets = 1.3198 – 1.3301
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 1.3080. Upside Targets 60% achieved.
  • The December Euro FX continued higher on Friday as it made new 12 session highs in a somewhat modest trading range as the bullish volatility is beginning to temper.
  • The euro struggled at the current levels just a few weeks ago and unless it can build on the momentum generated last week, this market may once again struggle above 1.31.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0087
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0247
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 1444.75. Upside Targets = 1465.00 – 1481.25
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 1466.00. Upside Target 60% achieved.
  • The December S&Ps moved just past the initial upside price objective listed in multiple morning  reports last week @ 1465.00 and ran into the daily Resistance Bollinger Band before dropping to close in the lower 30% of the day’s trading range.
  • Look for the S&Ps to drop lower in early week trading before finding strong support just above 1445 and then resuming its grind higher.
  • Projected Daily Range: 14.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 31.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50

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