Gold faces short-term correction to $1,728

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 10/08/12

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 112.70. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.22 – 101.89.
  • Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 112.70. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 112.70 or higher OR a range violation above 113.40.
  • November Brent Crude increased the spread once again on Friday, moving the distance between itself and WTI to more than $22 yet closing right around the day’s mid-range.
  • Look for Brent to move sideways to lower this week as tensions in the Middle East have been escalating yet demand is at record lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.51
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.82
  • Projected Monthly Range: 12.02

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/03/12 @ 91.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 88.94. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
  • Inside compression day generated on Friday.
  • November WTI Crude Oil dropped lower on Friday following a spike in prices because of ongoing Syria-Turkey conflict threatening supply to close back below $90 on the weekly level for the first time since July 13.
  • After generating a weekly bearish OVB, look for WTI to follow through on the 78% probability of violating $87.70 by Friday’s close as it works toward our initial Intermediate Term downside target of $86.44.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.51
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.33

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/05/12 @ 3.347. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.347 or lower.
  • November Natural Gas broke down to make new four-day lows on Friday and partially confirm a Short Term top in the market before finding ample support between last week’s high of $3.546 and Monday’s low to rally and settle back above the daily mid-range.
  • Look for natural gas to continue higher throughout this week as the possible record low temps in the north and mid-west should drive short-term demand and push this market to the Intermediate Term upside resistance zone at $3.602 – $3.747.
  • Projected Daily Range: .127
  • Projected Weekly Range: .328
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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