So we hear a lot about facts and fact checkers. Folks, these debates are all about form, not substance and people want to see how they interact with each other. It’s why they finally resorted to putting the 72 Dolphins against the 79 Steelers in a computer. These 2 teams could never match up for real on a field, but people wanted to see how they could go against each other. It’s why people are going to want to see the LA Lakers and the Miami Heat in the Finals. So they get 2 more chances plus Ryan v. Biden. The statistics are what they are, Gallup released a stat from 1936-2004 there were 18 races and 15 of them were won by the candidate ahead after Labor Day. Someone else came up with a theme stating the candidate ahead 2 weeks after the conventions has won the last 15 races. If that’s the case the Romney has about a 17% chance of winning and the fat lady is already on the stage. But if the market continues to drop from here and he plays the role of the road team playing a perfect game he still has an outside shot of pulling the upset.
This week is the big anniversary of the 2007 top and 2002 bottom. But we are already in the time window. The VIX is back down to basement levels so the conditions are ripe for an important turn, be careful and if it really does materialize please don’t be the last man in.