Oil regains losses on Middle East tensions

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 10/05/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/02/12 @ 111.46. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.22 – 101.89.
  • Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 112.70. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close @ 112.70 or higher.
  • November Brent Crude rallied back strongly on Thursday because of rising tensions in Syria and Turkey that helped to push the market to its highest close since mid-September.
  • Brent should continue its move higher heading into the weekend but look for this market to stall next week as it tries to penetrate the $115 mark.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.18
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 12.02

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/03/12 @ 91.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 88.94. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 91.85. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 91.85 or higher.
  • November WTI Crude Oil followed Brent higher on Thursday as the escalating tensions throughout the Middle East had traders on edge as Wednesday’s losses were eradicated.
  • While all signs may point to this market trading significantly higher over the next few sessions, look for strong technical resistance above last week’s high and $94.56.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.12
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.96
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.33

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.602 – 3.747.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.347. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.347 or lower.
  • November Natural Gas saw a very erratic trading session on Wednesday after a heavy supply injection was unable to keep the market lower as it rallied back the new highs for the day in the last hour of trading.
  • With natural gas settling above $3.40 on Thursday, look for bulls to return in the short term and push this market to new yearly highs and into the upper resistance channel of 3.602 – 3.747.
  • Projected Daily Range: .115
  • Projected Weekly Range: .298
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

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