KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/02/12 @ 111.46. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.22 – 101.89.
- November Brent Crude was unable to find the necessary support around the $110 and sank to its lowest level in nearly two weeks after violating last week’s low.
- Look for a modest short-covering rally on Thursday before continued selling returns to the market and drops it to new two-month lows at $103.22.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.22
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/03/12 @ 91.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 88.94. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- November WTI Crude Oil dropped lower on Wednesday, once again increasing the spread to more than $20 with Brent and closing just inside the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- WTI has now generated a weekly OVB and should this market close below the weekly mid-range, it will have a 90% probability of trading below this week’s low of 87.70 next week.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.96
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.347. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.347 or lower.
- November Natural Gas dropped sharply throughout the session on Wednesday on reports of cooler whether to go along with a large round of profit taking from bulls that have picked up $0.60 in the last week and a half.
- Currently the rate of change has pushed this market too high, too fast and traders should look to sell any rallies on Thursday aggressively unless there is an unexpected miss in supply injections.
- Projected Daily Range: .128
- Projected Weekly Range: .298
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1809.10 – 1825.50.
- DOUBLE VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1765.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1765.60 or lower.
- December Gold generated its second consecutive inside VRCB on Wednesday as the market continues to tread water ahead of major economic data points due out on Thursday and Friday.
- As previously mentioned in some of the reports from earlier in the week, Gold will need to break higher through this week’s high and close above $1,800 or else this market will see a sharp drop below the previous three weeks’ low.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 48.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2980. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2980 or higher.
- The December Euro FX remained in a very tight trading range on Wednesday as the previous session’s bearish price action kept a lid on what little movement higher the Euro tried to make.
- Look for the euro to move higher tomorrow as the ECB will most likely reaffirm their role in backstopping the currency and member nations that will push the currency to new highs near 1.3408.
- Projected Daily Range: .0095
- Projected Weekly Range: .0269
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 1444.75. Upside Targets = 1465.00 – 1481.25
- The December S&Ps continued the bullish price action shown over the last 6 trading sessions after confirming a Short Term bottom pointing to a move at new contract highs.
- Look for Wall Street to pop higher should Mitt Romney win in the first presidential debate and challenge last week’s high @ 1457.00 before the economic data points are released.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
