Oil spread widens to $20 as WTI and Brent both fall

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 10/04/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1809.10 – 1825.50.
  • DOUBLE VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1765.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1765.60 or lower.
  • December Gold generated its second consecutive inside VRCB on Wednesday as the market continues to tread water ahead of major economic data points due out on Thursday and Friday.
  • As previously mentioned in some of the reports from earlier in the week, Gold will need to break higher through this week’s high and close above $1,800 or else this market will see a sharp drop below the previous three weeks’ low.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
  • VRCB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2980. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2980 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX remained in a very tight trading range on Wednesday as the previous session’s bearish price action kept a lid on what little movement higher the Euro tried to make.
  • Look for the euro to move higher tomorrow as the ECB will most likely reaffirm their role in backstopping the currency and member nations that will push the currency to new highs near 1.3408.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0095
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0269
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/03/12 @ 1444.75. Upside Targets = 1465.00 – 1481.25
  • The December S&Ps continued the bullish price action shown over the last 6 trading sessions after confirming a Short Term bottom pointing to a move at new contract highs.
  • Look for Wall Street to pop higher should Mitt Romney win in the first presidential debate and challenge last week’s high @ 1457.00 before the economic data points are released.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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