KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1809.10 – 1825.50.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1765.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1765.60 or lower.
- December Gold settled back lower on Tuesday as the market failed to pick up momentum after Monday’s bullish OVB in another day of tight trading.
- As mentioned in Tuesday morning’s report, unless gold can make a serious move higher to close above $1,800/oz. this market is and will remain suspect to a modest correction that could push the market below $1,725.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 48.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2980. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2980 or higher.
- The December Euro FX traded back near last week’s highs on Tuesday before dropping back to close below the day’s mid-range in a very choppy trading session.
- As mentioned in Tuesday morning’s report, the Euro will first need to see a C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) to signify that a Short Term bottom is in and support a move back to retest the recent highs and eventually 1.3289.
- Projected Daily Range: .0116
- Projected Weekly Range: .0269
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
- Inside compression day generated Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1444.75 or higher.
- The December S&P pared its earlier losses on Tuesday with a last hour push higher that eventually helped the market close above its daily mid-range as it closed at its highest level in nearly a week.
- The bullish price action in the late hours of Tuesday trading should help propel the S&P higher heading into Wednesday trading as this market will need to break through to new weekly highs or face a late week decline.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/27/12 @ 111.71. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/27/12 @ 112.01. Upside Targets = 117.56 – 120.17.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 111.46. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 111.46 or lower.
- November Brent Crude dropped lower on Tuesday in one of the most range bound sessions this market has seen in nearly a month while trading just above the 50-day exponential moving average.
- While the Short Term trend is decidedly bearish, this market will need to find strong support just below $110 or else risk a drop lower to $103.22.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.95
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 92.40. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- Inside ALMOST VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 91.25. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 91.25 or lower.
- November WTI Crude Oil gained ground on Brent Monday as it closed at its highest price in six trading sessions although it couldn’t hold onto them after the pit session and last traded just around the day’s mid-range.
- The crude complex is looking very shady at the current price levels and unless this market can crack $93.84 on Tuesday, WTI could continue lower to the extended downside target of $86.44.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.59
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.96
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
- New contract highs generated on Tuesday @ 3.546. Upside Target over 160% achieved.
- November Natural Gas rebounded from an early morning collapse to close just off the session high and at its highest level since 12/02/11.
- With natural gas having traded to within $0.06 of the bottom side of the Major Term resistance zone, pegged at $3.602–$3.747, look for gas’s momentum to slow throughout the rest of the trading week.
- Projected Daily Range: .148
- Projected Weekly Range: .298
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
