E-mini S&P looks for new weekly highs or faces decline

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 10/03/12

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/27/12 @ 111.71. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/27/12 @ 112.01. Upside Targets = 117.56 – 120.17.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 111.46. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 111.46 or lower.
  • November Brent Crude dropped lower on Tuesday in one of the most range bound sessions this market has seen in nearly a month while trading just above the 50-day exponential moving average.
  • While the Short Term trend is decidedly bearish, this market will need to find strong support just below $110 or else risk a drop lower to $103.22.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.95
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 12.02

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 92.40. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
  • Inside ALMOST VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 91.25. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 91.25 or lower.
  • November WTI Crude Oil gained ground on Brent Monday as it closed at its highest price in six trading sessions although it couldn’t hold onto them after the pit session and last traded just around the day’s mid-range.
  • The crude complex is looking very shady at the current price levels and unless this market can crack $93.84 on Tuesday, WTI could continue lower to the extended downside target of $86.44.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.59
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.96
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.33

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
  • New contract highs generated on Tuesday @ 3.546. Upside Target over 160% achieved.
  • November Natural Gas rebounded from an early morning collapse to close just off the session high and at its highest level since 12/02/11.
  • With natural gas having traded to within $0.06 of the bottom side of the Major Term resistance zone, pegged at $3.602–$3.747, look for gas’s momentum to slow throughout the rest of the trading week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .148
  • Projected Weekly Range: .298
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624


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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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