E-mini S&P looks for new weekly highs or faces decline

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 10/03/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1809.10 – 1825.50.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1765.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1765.60 or lower.
  • December Gold settled back lower on Tuesday as the market failed to pick up momentum after Monday’s bullish OVB in another day of tight trading.
  • As mentioned in Tuesday morning’s report, unless gold can make a serious move higher to close above $1,800/oz. this market is and will remain suspect to a modest correction that could push the market below $1,725.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.80
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2980. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2980 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX traded back near last week’s highs on Tuesday before dropping back to close below the day’s mid-range in a very choppy trading session.
  • As mentioned in Tuesday morning’s report, the Euro will first need to see a C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) to signify that a Short Term bottom is in and support a move back to retest the recent highs and eventually 1.3289.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0116
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0269
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
  • Inside compression day generated Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1444.75 or higher.
  • The December S&P pared its earlier losses on Tuesday with a last hour push higher that eventually helped the market close above its daily mid-range as it closed at its highest level in nearly a week.
  • The bullish price action in the late hours of Tuesday trading should help propel the S&P higher heading into Wednesday trading as this market will need to break through to new weekly highs or face a late week decline.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50

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