KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/27/12 @ 111.71. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/27/12 @ 112.01. Upside Targets = 117.56 – 120.17.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 111.46. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 111.46 or lower.
- November Brent Crude was unable to break through last week’s high on Monday in a very tight trading session as it gave back some ground to WTI and closed below the day’s mid-range.
- Should Brent close below Monday’s low on Tuesday, look for Brent to sink lower through the recent lows at $107 to as low as $103.22.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.17
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 92.40. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- OVB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 92.48 or higher. Upside Target = 95.77.
- November WTI Crude Oil gained ground on Brent Monday as it closed at its highest price in six trading sessions although it couldn’t hold onto them after the pit session and last traded just around the day’s mid-range.
- The crude complex is looking very shady at the current price levels and unless this market can crack $93.84 on Tuesday, WTI could continue lower to the extended downside target of $86.44.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.96
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.96
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
- New contract highs generated on Monday @ 3.486. Upside Target over 150% achieved.
- November Natural Gas exploded higher on Monday as it traded to its highest level in 9 ½ months as the recent Intermediate Term bullish TREND REVERSAL continues to propel this market higher and achieved the first Intermediate Term objective only six days into the trade.
- After the consolidation base built over the past three months between $2.80 - $3.00, natural gas should have no problem extending its gains to $3.602.
- Projected Daily Range: .124
- Projected Weekly Range: .298
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1809.10 – 1825.50.
- OVB generated on Monday.
- December Gold jumped higher in morning trading on Monday as it generated new 2012 highs before falling back lower later in the session near the day’s mid-range.
- Unfortunately, gold’s price action was less than stellar after reaching the new highs and unless this market can pick up steam and blow through $1,800/oz., gold may stall and see a modest correction in the near future.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 48.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 1.2813. Downside Targets over 100% achieved.
- The December Euro FX found the support mentioned in the weekend report on Monday just below last week’s low and eight ticks through the downside target before rallying back to close below 1.29.
- Monday’s price action was essentially neutral and this market will need to close above the high of the low day in order to give a more clear indication that it is safe for bulls to return.
- Projected Daily Range: .0120
- Projected Weekly Range: .0269
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
- OVB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1444.75 or higher.
- The December S&Ps struggled to hold onto their gains in the second half of trading Monday, closing in the lower 40% of the day’s trading range after being unable to sustain the rally above 1450.
- Should the S&Ps fall through Monday’s low in Tuesday trading, look for last week’s low to then be violated and this market continue lower to the downside objective of 1404.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
