Oil looks shaky, may see downside target of $86

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 10/02/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/01/12 @ 1790.10. Upside Targets = 1809.10 – 1825.50.
  • OVB generated on Monday.
  • December Gold jumped higher in morning trading on Monday as it generated new 2012 highs before falling back lower later in the session near the day’s mid-range.
  • Unfortunately, gold’s price action was less than stellar after reaching the new highs and unless this market can pick up steam and blow through $1,800/oz., gold may stall and see a modest correction in the near future.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 1.2813. Downside Targets over 100% achieved.
  • The December Euro FX found the support mentioned in the weekend report on Monday just below last week’s low and eight ticks through the downside target before rallying back to close below 1.29.
  • Monday’s price action was essentially neutral and this market will need to close above the high of the low day in order to give a more clear indication that it is safe for bulls to return.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0120
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0269
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/01/12 @ 1444.75. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
  • OVB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1444.75 or higher.
  • The December S&Ps struggled to hold onto their gains in the second half of trading Monday, closing in the lower 40% of the day’s trading range after being unable to sustain the rally above 1450.
  • Should the S&Ps fall through Monday’s low in Tuesday trading, look for last week’s low to then be violated and this market continue lower to the downside objective of 1404.25.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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