Oil looks shaky, may see downside target of $86

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 10/02/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/27/12 @ 111.71. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/27/12 @ 112.01. Upside Targets = 117.56 – 120.17.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 111.46. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 111.46 or lower.
  • November Brent Crude was unable to break through last week’s high on Monday in a very tight trading session as it gave back some ground to WTI and closed below the day’s mid-range.
  • Should Brent close below Monday’s low on Tuesday, look for Brent to sink lower through the recent lows at $107 to as low as $103.22.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.17
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 12.02

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 92.40. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
  • OVB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 92.48 or higher. Upside Target = 95.77.
  • November WTI Crude Oil gained ground on Brent Monday as it closed at its highest price in six trading sessions although it couldn’t hold onto them after the pit session and last traded just around the day’s mid-range.
  • The crude complex is looking very shady at the current price levels and unless this market can crack $93.84 on Tuesday, WTI could continue lower to the extended downside target of $86.44.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.96
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.96
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.33

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
  • New contract highs generated on Monday @ 3.486. Upside Target over 150% achieved.
  • November Natural Gas exploded higher on Monday as it traded to its highest level in 9 ½ months as the recent Intermediate Term bullish TREND REVERSAL continues to propel this market higher and achieved the first Intermediate Term objective only six days into the trade.
  • After the consolidation base built over the past three months between $2.80 - $3.00,  natural gas should have no problem extending its gains to $3.602.
  • Projected Daily Range: .124
  • Projected Weekly Range: .298
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

Page 1 of 2 >>
Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome