KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/27/12 @ 111.71. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/27/12 @ 112.01. Upside Targets = 117.56 – 120.17.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 113.40.
- November Brent Crude was able to moderately extend its gains on Friday as it made new 8 session highs but closed below the day’s mid-range as risk markets had trouble holding onto early gains going into the close.
- Look for Brent to crack through the $115 threshold in early trading this week before running into the resistance zone just shy of $117 that dropped this market more than $10 in five trading sessions.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.16
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 92.40. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 92.40 or higher.
- November WTI Crude Oil moved a shade higher on Friday in a very narrow trading range (missed generating a VRCB by six ticks) and closed at its highest level all week.
- WTI lagged Brent all week and extended the spread to more than $20 as projected in last week’s early reports and unless it can exceed last week’s high of $93.20, WTI could trend out to the side to lower this week.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.07
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.96
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
- New 8 week highs made on current move Friday @ 3.330. Upside Targets over 115% achieved
- November Natural Gas generated new 2012 spot contract closing highs on Friday as it traded within $0.08 of the November contract highs after closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band for the second straight day.
- Traders should expect a slight setback in early trading on Monday to begin Q4 before this move extends higher to the extended Short Term objective of $3.355 and possibly the Intermediate Term objective of $3.416 before a true correction unfolds.
- Projected Daily Range: .120
- Projected Weekly Range: .298
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/26/12 @ 1753.60. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1783.00 or higher.
- December Gold settled back within the close cluster pricing range that it has been in over the last two weeks on Friday in thin trading heading into the weekend.
- Gold may see a modest setback at the beginning of the week but just as it has proven to be over the past three weeks, these should be looked upon as prime buying opportunities until this market can close below $1,750 on a daily level.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.40
- Projected Weekly Range: 48.20
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/2012 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/2012 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2972. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2972 or higher.
- The December Euro FX erased all of its gains generated on Thursday as they closed at its lowest level since 09/11 after failing to attract buyers as the currency neared the 1.30 level.
- The euro will need to find strong support near last week’s low and do an abrupt 180 degree move back to the upside or risk falling further through the 1.28 level and possibly all the way down to 1.2656.
- Projected Daily Range: .0100
- Projected Weekly Range: .0269
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
- Inside compression day generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1444.75. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1444.75 or higher.
- The December S&Ps settled back lower on Friday along with the rest of the “risk” assets as traders saw very little appeal in staying in the market heading into the weekend, a trend that has been prevalent since summer and the European debt crises.
- If the S&Ps can hold last week’s low of 1424.00, look for this market to continue to advance higher throughout the trading week and threaten the December contract highs at 1468.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
