Natural gas, gold look for setback before move higher

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 10/01/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 1783.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/26/12 @ 1753.60. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
  • VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1783.00 or higher.
  • December Gold settled back within the close cluster pricing range that it has been in over the last two weeks on Friday in thin trading heading into the weekend.
  • Gold may see a modest setback at the beginning of the week but just as it has proven to be over the past three weeks, these should be looked upon as prime buying opportunities until this market can close below $1,750 on a daily level.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.40
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/2012 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/2012 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2972. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2972 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX erased all of its gains generated on Thursday as they closed at its lowest level since 09/11 after failing to attract buyers as the currency neared the 1.30 level.
  • The euro will need to find strong support near last week’s low and do an abrupt 180 degree move back to the upside or risk falling further through the 1.28 level and possibly all the way down to 1.2656.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0100
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0269
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
  • Inside compression day generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1444.75. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1444.75 or higher.
  • The December S&Ps settled back lower on Friday along with the rest of the “risk” assets as traders saw very little appeal in staying in the market heading into the weekend, a trend that has been prevalent since summer and the European debt crises.
  • If the S&Ps can hold last week’s low of 1424.00, look for this market to continue to advance higher throughout the trading week and threaten the December contract highs at 1468.00.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 36.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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