Natural gas, gold look for setback before move higher

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 10/01/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/27/12 @ 111.71. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/27/12 @ 112.01. Upside Targets = 117.56 – 120.17.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 113.40.
  • November Brent Crude was able to moderately extend its gains on Friday as it made new 8 session highs but closed below the day’s mid-range as risk markets had trouble holding onto early gains going into the close.
  • Look for Brent to crack through the $115 threshold in early trading this week before running into the resistance zone just shy of $117 that dropped this market more than $10 in five trading sessions.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.16
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 12.02

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/28/12 @ 92.40. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 92.40 or higher.
  • November WTI Crude Oil moved a shade higher on Friday in a very narrow trading range (missed generating a VRCB by six ticks) and closed at its highest level all week.
  • WTI lagged Brent all week and extended the spread to more than $20 as projected in last week’s early reports and unless it can exceed last week’s high of $93.20, WTI could trend out to the side to lower this week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.07
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.96
  • Projected Monthly Range: 11.33

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
  • New 8 week highs made on current move Friday @ 3.330. Upside Targets over 115% achieved
  • November Natural Gas generated new 2012 spot contract closing highs on Friday as it traded within $0.08 of the November contract highs after closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band for the second straight day.
  • Traders should expect a slight setback in early trading on Monday to begin Q4 before this move extends higher to the extended Short Term objective of $3.355 and possibly the Intermediate Term objective of $3.416 before a true correction unfolds.
  • Projected Daily Range: .120
  • Projected Weekly Range: .298
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

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