KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/27/12 @ 111.71. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/27/12 @ 112.01. Upside Targets = 117.56 – 120.17.
- November Brent Crude rocketed higher during Thursday’s trading while once again increasing the spread between itself and WTI and made new six-day highs in the process.
- Look for Brent to extend its gains going into the weekend, albeit in a subdued trading day, as the current price action indicates that next week could propel Brent price back near the September highs at $117.95.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.21
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.09
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.05
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom @ with a range violation 92.40. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 92.40 or higher.
- November WTI Crude Oil charged higher on Thursday as value buyers were eager to pick the market up after a near $12 correction and breaking the $90 threshold.
- Expect a strong finish to the week in WTI as it builds on Thursday’s momentum to challenge the highs of the week before running into further resistance above $94 next week.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.51
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.76
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
- New 8 week highs made on current move Thursday @ 3.318. Upside Targets over 105% achieved
- November Natural Gas disregarded the large storage injection on Thursday as the market exploded after the report to generate new 2012 spot contract highs.
- With fundamentals clearly having little impact in this market, the technical trade should continue to perform well and move higher toward the Intermediate Term objective of $3.416 and new November contract highs.
- Projected Daily Range: .120
- Projected Weekly Range: .297
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/26/12 @ 1757.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/26/12 @ 1753.60. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1783.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1783.00 or higher.
- December Gold roared back from the half week correction as it generated new closing highs on the recent move higher.
- Gold remains the strongest commodity as it has been over the past six weeks and should push through to new 2012 highs as it tracks down a new upside objective of $1,829.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 51.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- Bullish DOUBLE VRCB–OVB combo generated on Thursday after making new lows on current move @ 1.2839. Downside Target 95% achieved.
- The December Euro FX traded to within seven ticks of our first downside target before finding strong support fueled by a late session rally to generate an OVB and a possibly signal an end to the recent Short Term correction.
- Expect a slight setback during Friday’s trading back to 1.29 before carrying the recent bullish price action higher into next week as the Euro may look to move as high as 1.3315.
- Projected Daily Range: .0088
- Projected Weekly Range: .0324
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
- C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1444.75. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1444.75 or higher.
- The December S&Ps logged a strong rebound after two sessions of sizable losses despite a fury of poor economic reports on Thursday as traders used this correction to pile into a market that was trading at pre-QE3 prices.
- Although the expected downside target of 1419.50 came close to being achieved, many investors were hoping for a larger pullback in price but may just have to wait a few weeks as this market looks poised to now move back to the upside and challenge the recent highs.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
