Natural gas rally ignores fundamentals, targets $3.41

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 09/28/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/26/12 @ 1757.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/26/12 @ 1753.60. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1783.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1783.00 or higher.
  • December Gold roared back from the half week correction as it generated new closing highs on the recent move higher.
  • Gold remains the strongest commodity as it has been over the past six weeks and should push through to new 2012 highs as it tracks down a new upside objective of $1,829.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 51.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 126.40

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
  • Bullish DOUBLE VRCB–OVB combo generated on Thursday after making new lows on current move @ 1.2839. Downside Target 95% achieved.
  • The December Euro FX traded to within seven ticks of our first downside target before finding strong support fueled by a late session rally to generate an OVB and a possibly signal an end to the recent Short Term correction.
  • Expect a slight setback during Friday’s trading back to 1.29 before carrying the recent bullish price action higher into next week as the Euro may look to move as high as 1.3315.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0088
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0324
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0532

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
  • C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1444.75. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1444.75 or higher.
  • The December S&Ps logged a strong rebound after two sessions of sizable losses despite a fury of poor economic reports on Thursday as traders used this correction to pile into a market that was trading at pre-QE3 prices.
  • Although the expected downside target of 1419.50 came close to being achieved, many investors were hoping for a larger pullback in price but may just have to wait a few weeks as this market looks poised to now move back to the upside and challenge the recent highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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