Oil nearing oversold as WTI-Brent spread cracks $20

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 09/27/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/26/12 @ 1757.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/26/12 @ 1753.60. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
  • December Gold traded within just eight ticks of the downside support objective listed in Wednesday morning’s report before surging higher in the second half day of trading to close back above the day’s mid-range.
  • After gold’s 2 ½ day correction, look for it to move back strongly higher near $1,770 on Thursday and to possibly recapture the gains it had previously lost earlier in the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 21.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 51.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 126.40

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/2012 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/2012 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
  • DOUBLE VRCB generated on Wednesday making new lows on current move @ 1.2846. Downside Target 92% achieved.
  • The December Euro FX moved ever closer to the initial downside target on Wednesday despite a rapidly shifting rate of change from bearish to bullish on worries over Spain’s financial stability.
  • Should the euro close above Wednesday’s high, look for the current downward momentum to shift back to bullish and for the market to turn back to the upside and make a move towards 1.3322.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0084
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0324
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0532

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1424.00. Downside Targets 90% achieved.
  • The December S&P’s followed through on Tuesday’s sharp decline as they closed at their lowest threshold in since before QE3.
  • While the market broke below the psychological support of 1425 it was unable to close below it thus hinting at a possible drying up of bearish volatility in the short-term and a move back to challenge the 1450 resistance area.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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