KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 111.10. Downside Targets = 107.18 – 106.50.
- Inside compression day generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ $111.71. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ $111.71 or higher.
- November Brent Crude spent most of the early session trending higher before losing its gains and last trading below the day’s mid-range.
- Although Brent could not break through last Friday’s high of $111.70, it did increase the spread between itself and WTI which should be a continuing theme throughout the week as Brent remains steady to modestly lower.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.14
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.09
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.05
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- November WTI Crude Oil dropped back near the month’s low on Tuesday as WTI closed at its lowest level since Aug. 2 and generated new lows for the day after the close of the pit session on the heels of a late day “risk-off” sentiment.
- WTI’s price action suggests a drop back below $90 to the first downside target of $89.22 with the secondary target of $86.44 looking evermore vulnerable.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.83
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.76
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 3.105. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.105.
- November Natural Gas moved substantially higher on Tuesday during the last half-hour of pit session trading as natural gas followed through on Monday evening’s call to challenge last week’s high of $3.121 in Tuesday’s trading action.
- After last week’s DOUBLE VRCB pattern in a clearly defined support zone, natural gas has begun what could be an extensive move higher that challenges not only 2012 highs of 3.277 but the November contract highs of 3.407.
- Projected Daily Range: .095
- Projected Weekly Range: .297
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 1780.30. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1757.80. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1757.80 or lower.
- December Gold came within just over $2 of the price target listed in Tuesday morning’s report stating where resistance would come back into the market before faltering in the second half of pit session trading to settle just below the day’s mid-range.
- Expect for gold to see a modest correction in the looming days back near $1,737.50 before finding further support.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.40
- Projected Weekly Range: 51.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/2012 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/2012 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1.2898. Downside Target 80% achieved.
- The December Euro FX gave back some gains, as was the case in most “risk” markets on Tuesday to last trade just off the day’s low and close at its lowest level in almost 2 weeks.
- To reiterate the best strategy for the euro at this time, expect a continuation of low volatility with sideways to slightly lower price action over the next few weeks before this market finds support just below 1.28 and makes a move back to the upside.
- Projected Daily Range: .0089
- Projected Weekly Range: .0324
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/25/12 @ 1436.75. Downside Targets = 1419.50 – 1404.25
- Bearish EROVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday.
- The December S&Ps went in the opposite direction expected on Tuesday as the early session gains were evaporated as investors turned back to concerns over Spanish finances and whether they will need an ECB bailout along with a sluggish long term growth rate expected by Caterpillar.
- The S&Ps have been long overdue for a sizable correction and the next technical threshold that will be important for the S&Ps to hold doesn’t come into play until 1400.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
