KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 111.10. Downside Targets = 107.18 – 106.50.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 111.71. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 111.71 or higher.
- November Brent Crude sank lower on Monday in a fairly light trading session as the collective “risk” markets all moved to the downside and Brent once again impacted the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- After Brent found support just below last Thursday’s mid-range, look for Brent to move back to the upside on Tuesday and break through last Friday’s high before continuing to the weekly upside objective of $114.87.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.65
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.09
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.05
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 93.84. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 93.84 or higher.
- November WTI Crude Oil was just barely able to stay above last week’s low on Monday as it found support just above $91 yet closed below the day’s mid-range in what was a rough day for the energy complex.
- Look for WTI to trail Brent to the upside this week and mostly work its way out to the side as the spread between the two Crude Oil’s advances to more than $20 by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.83
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.76
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/12 @ 3.015. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.080 or higher.
- November Natural Gas just barely traded through last Friday’s high on Monday before settling back lower on the session although it did find strong support at the $3 threshold.
- While natural gas settled just below the daily mid-range, look for continued support just above $3 and a move to challenge last week’s high @ $3.121.
- Projected Daily Range: .096
- Projected Weekly Range: .297
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 1780.30. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1757.80. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1757.80 or lower.
- December Gold dropped back lower during Monday trading following Friday’s near English sell signal but once again found strong support near last week’s low.
- Traders should once again look for gold to make a move back higher on Tuesday above $1,780 before running into any further Short Term resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 51.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/12 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 1.2902. Downside Targets 80% achieved.
- The December Euro FX continued marginally lower on Monday while closing at its lowest level in eight sessions more than 200 points off the recent highs.
- The euro should work its way out to the side in early trading this week and move slightly lower overall as the market should see another 9-11 days in the current correction.
- Projected Daily Range: .0107
- Projected Weekly Range: .0324
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1449.25 or lower.
- The December S&Ps once again closed in the same cluster formation the market has been stuck in for the past eight sessions on Monday but closed above the day’s mid-range pointing to higher prices on Tuesday.
- Look for the S&Ps to breakout of the current formation to the upside as they challenge last week’s high of 1462.25 as investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic after QE3.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
