Oil looking for support as WTI-Brent spread widens

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 09/25/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 111.10. Downside Targets = 107.18 – 106.50.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 111.71. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 111.71 or higher.
  • November Brent Crude sank lower on Monday in a fairly light trading session as the collective “risk” markets all moved to the downside and Brent once again impacted the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • After Brent found support just below last Thursday’s mid-range, look for Brent to move back to the upside on Tuesday and break through last Friday’s high before continuing to the weekly upside objective of $114.87.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.65
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.09
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.05

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 93.84. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 93.84 or higher.
  • November WTI Crude Oil was just barely able to stay above last week’s low on Monday as it found support just above $91 yet closed below the day’s mid-range in what was a rough day for the energy complex.
  • Look for WTI to trail Brent to the upside this week and mostly work its way out to the side as the spread between the two Crude Oil’s advances to more than $20 by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.83
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.76
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/24/12 @ 3.080. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/12 @ 3.015. Upside Targets = 3.211 – 3.283.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.080 or higher.
  • November Natural Gas just barely traded through last Friday’s high on Monday before settling back lower on the session although it did find strong support at the $3 threshold.
  • While natural gas settled just below the daily mid-range, look for continued support just above $3 and a move to challenge last week’s high @ $3.121.
  • Projected Daily Range: .096
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665

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