KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 111.10. Downside Targets = 107.18 – 106.50.
- VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 111.71. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 111.71 or higher.
- November Brent Crude extended its gains on Friday as it rose more than $4.50 in the last two sessions of the week and erased almost half of the losses sustained on Monday and Wednesday.
- Traders should look for a modest setback near $110 in early trading on Monday before finding some support near the daily Support Bollinger Band and rallying back towards the year-end target of $124.11.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.77
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.09
- Projected Monthly Range: 13.05
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 93.85. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 93.85 or higher.
- November WTI Crude Oil was unable to log as strong of gains as Brent did on Friday as the spread widened to more than $18.
- Because of the weak price action on Friday, WTI could see a continuation of the downward pressure applies last week and move back below $90 toward the initial downside target of $89.28.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.78
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.76
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.919. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.865. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.080. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.080 or higher.
- November Natural Gas exploded higher on Friday after breaking through to new four-day highs after a double VRCB pattern formation signaled an end to the recent correction.
- With the current Short Term and now Intermediate Term trends having reversed to bullish, look for any Short Term corrections to be limited as the market moves toward new 2012 highs.
- Projected Daily Range: .096
- Projected Weekly Range: .297
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 1780.30. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ $1790.00. Upside Target 90% achieved.
- December Gold followed through as Thursday evening’s report suggested and traded to within less than $3 of the 2012 highs before settling back below the daily mid-range.
- Friday’s weak price action should be worrisome to short-term investors because of the overbought condition of the precious metal and gold could drop back to test last week’s low of $1,753.20 before finding any support.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 51.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/2012 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/2012 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- Inside compression day on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3071. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3071 or higher.
- The December Euro FX was able to log a modest gain on Friday but saw most of its session’s earlier gains evaporate throughout the day and closed back in the lower 35% of the day’s trading range.
- The euro, like most of the “risk” markets, have reached a point of extreme overbought prices and should any negative economic news come across the wires this market could easily drop over 150 points lower to the first downside target of 1.2832.
- Projected Daily Range: .0109
- Projected Weekly Range: .0324
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1449.25 or lower.
- The December S&P’s rose in overnight trading to make new weekly highs yet lost momentum throughout the day and actually closed at its lowest level all week.
- While the markets have been inflated due to announcement of QE3, only a weekly close below 1443.50 should have bulls exiting this market and traders should look for new contract highs as the market tracks down 1486.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
