Oil pressure continues, natural gas searching for 2012 highs

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 09/24/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 1780.30. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ $1790.00. Upside Target 90% achieved.
  • December Gold followed through as Thursday evening’s report suggested and traded to within less than $3 of the 2012 highs before settling back below the daily mid-range.
  • Friday’s weak price action should be worrisome to short-term investors because of the overbought condition of the precious metal and gold could drop back to test last week’s low of $1,753.20 before finding any support.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 51.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 126.40

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/2012 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/2012 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
  • Inside compression day on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3071. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3071 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX was able to log a modest gain on Friday but saw most of its session’s earlier gains evaporate throughout the day and closed back in the lower 35% of the day’s trading range.
  • The euro, like most of the “risk” markets, have reached a point of extreme overbought prices and should any negative economic news come across the wires this market could easily drop over 150 points lower to the first downside target of 1.2832.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0109
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0324
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0532

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1449.25 or lower.
  • The December S&P’s rose in overnight trading to make new weekly highs yet lost momentum throughout the day and actually closed at its lowest level all week.
  • While the markets have been inflated due to announcement of QE3, only a weekly close below 1443.50 should have bulls exiting this market and traders should look for new contract highs as the market tracks down 1486.25.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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