Oil pressure continues, natural gas searching for 2012 highs

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 09/24/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 111.10. Downside Targets = 107.18 – 106.50.
  • VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 111.71. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 111.71 or higher.
  • November Brent Crude extended its gains on Friday as it rose more than $4.50 in the last two sessions of the week and erased almost half of the losses sustained on Monday and Wednesday.
  • Traders should look for a modest setback near $110 in early trading on Monday before finding some support near the daily Support Bollinger Band and rallying back towards the year-end target of $124.11.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.77
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.09
  • Projected Monthly Range: 13.05

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
  • VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 93.85. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 93.85 or higher.
  • November WTI Crude Oil was unable to log as strong of gains as Brent did on Friday as the spread widened to more than $18.
  • Because of the weak price action on Friday, WTI could see a continuation of the downward pressure applies last week and move back below $90 toward the initial downside target of $89.28.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.78
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.76
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

Natural Gas (November):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.919. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.865. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.080. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.080 or higher.
  • November Natural Gas exploded higher on Friday after breaking through to new four-day highs after a double VRCB pattern formation signaled an end to the recent correction.
  • With the current Short Term and now Intermediate Term trends having reversed to bullish, look for any Short Term corrections to be limited as the market moves toward new 2012 highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: .096
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665

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