Gold hits resistance as QE3 frenzy fades

In The Lead: “Winged Migration”

The Swiss firm anticipates that the common currency will drop to $1.23 by year-end and that it could trade at $1.19 within one year. We bring this to your attention in order to remind that gold and the euro have had a “BFF” relationship for the better part of a year now. One of the currently most impactful factors running against the euro is the fast-accelerating flight of deposits from four of Europe’s countries (Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece). Mind you, with that kind of developments under way, we are yet to learn of massive gold coin and bar demand coming out of Europe. It would only be logical for such worried account deserters to seek the warm glow of the yellow metal.

Nearly half a trillion dollars’ worth of deposits in those countries grew wings and took flight in the year that ended in July (and that was well before the crisis mushroomed into a larger one recently). Here is a disintegration pattern that no policymaker at the ECB or the Bundesbank or the Spanish cabinet can paper over with encouraging words. Question: “What’s in your wallet?” Answer: “Oh, only my life’s savings…”

The opening of the final trading session of the week saw the metals’ complex move higher once again after a few sessions marked by indecision and tandem-trading with the euro. Spot gold was bid near $1,777 early on Friday while spot silver hovered near $34.90 on the bid. Standard Bank (SA) analysts surveying the silver market “believe that [Chinese] domestic silver stockpiles are extremely large when compared to the lackluster fabrication demand. PMI readings out of China remain un-inspiring; consequently we do not expect Chinese fabrication demand for silver to improve any time soon. We estimate that since 2009, China has amassed stockpiles of around 15 months of fabrication demand, up from only four months at the start of 2009.”

Platinum moved $18 higher to touch $1,639 and palladium advanced $10 to the $671 per ounce mark. EW midweek analysis shows gold “sitting on the outer portion of its exponentially rising bowl, bringing prices to the edge of a reversal. Gold has continued to hold up relative to a falling RSI (like silver).”Rhodium was unchanged at $1,325 per ounce on the bid-side.

No sooner was the costly (in more ways than one) strike over at Lonmin, than another similar action appeared to start over at Anglo-Gold Ashanti. The firm ‘s Anglo American Plc is the world’s largest producer of platinum and it is now facing a new pattern of illegal pay strikes that are bypassing conventional wage-talk conventions. Some analysts feel that Lonmin’s headline (22%) pay settlement is the new paradigm and that workers at other firms might follow suit in disrupting output until adequate offers are made to them.

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