E-mini S&P taking aim at yearly target of 1512

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 09/21/12

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 111.10. Downside Targets = 107.18 – 106.50.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 107.10.
  • November Brent Crude traded just below the initial downside objective of $107.18 on Thursday before logging a strong rally to last trade just off the session’s high.
  • Because of Thursday’s strong price action, expect a modest setback on Friday heading into the weekend before next week leads to a retracement of the losses incurred this week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.73
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.18
  • Projected Monthly Range: 1305

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 90.96.
  • November WTI Crude Oil had its entire day’s trading range be below the daily Support Bollinger Band, although its last trade was just off the highs and back above $93.
  • WTI definitely remains the weaker of the two oil markets and although the strong close could point to a higher high for Friday, another solid retest of $90 shouldn’t catch anyone by surprise and possibly trade down to $89.28.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.63
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

Natural Gas (October):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.919. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.865. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.856. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.856 or higher.
  • October Natural Gas was able to log a gain on Thursday despite a large supply injection as buyers quickly scooped the market up below $2.75.
  • Although the fundamentals clearly supported lower natural gas prices today, the short-term trend was not to be bucked and if Wednesday’s high of $2.855 is violated, natural gas could threaten not only the highs of last week but also the 2012 spot highs of $3.277.
  • Projected Daily Range: .118
  • Projected Weekly Range: .281
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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