KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1449.25 or lower.
- The December S&P erased their earlier losses along with the rest of the “risk” market assets on Thursday, finishing just a few points off the session’s high.
- Because of the strong bullish trend and recent market close cluster formation, the S&P looks like it can make a move to new weekly highs on Friday setting up for a challenge of new 2012 contract highs and take aim at our yearly target of 1512.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 1780.30. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- Possible confirmation of a top @ with a range violation @ 1757.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1757.60 or lower.
- December Gold spent most of Thursday retracing its earlier losses as it is now forming a close cluster pattern.
- Expect gold to break through to new weekly highs on Friday as the call for new highs for the year remains squarely in focus above $1792.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 55.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/2012 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/20/2012 @ 1.2981. Downside Targets = 1.2832 – 1.2676
- The December Euro FX traded just 10 ticks below the support price listed in Wednesday morning’s report before rallying to end the session just below the daily mid-range.
- Based on historical trading patterns and the strength on the Short Term bull trend, using a 3-5 day correction to re-enter long positions such as the one in the euro has proved profitable and unless this market can close below Thursday’s low of 1.2930 on Friday, expect a continuation move back to the upside next week.
- Projected Daily Range: .0107
- Projected Weekly Range: .0301
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 111.10. Downside Targets = 107.18 – 106.50.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 107.10.
- November Brent Crude traded just below the initial downside objective of $107.18 on Thursday before logging a strong rally to last trade just off the session’s high.
- Because of Thursday’s strong price action, expect a modest setback on Friday heading into the weekend before next week leads to a retracement of the losses incurred this week.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.73
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.18
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 90.96.
- November WTI Crude Oil had its entire day’s trading range be below the daily Support Bollinger Band, although its last trade was just off the highs and back above $93.
- WTI definitely remains the weaker of the two oil markets and although the strong close could point to a higher high for Friday, another solid retest of $90 shouldn’t catch anyone by surprise and possibly trade down to $89.28.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.63
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.919. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.865. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
- Inside VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.856. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.856 or higher.
- October Natural Gas was able to log a gain on Thursday despite a large supply injection as buyers quickly scooped the market up below $2.75.
- Although the fundamentals clearly supported lower natural gas prices today, the short-term trend was not to be bucked and if Wednesday’s high of $2.855 is violated, natural gas could threaten not only the highs of last week but also the 2012 spot highs of $3.277.
- Projected Daily Range: .118
- Projected Weekly Range: .281
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
