Gold targets 2012 highs by week’s end

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 09/20/12

KEY TERMS

OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 1780.30. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
  • December Gold generated fresh highs on Wednesday on a continuation rally from Tuesday although it settled back below the mid-range for the session.
  • Expect stronger price action on Thursday and for gold to make new 2012 highs by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: 21.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 55.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 126.40

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/12 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.3037 – 1.3685*.
  • The December Euro FX recaptured some of its earlier losses on the day to close in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
  • Thursday should have nominal price action that moves mostly higher as the risk markets remain trapped in limbo over whether Spain will request ECB assistance and the effectiveness of recent policy easing.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0123
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0301
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0532

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1449.25 or lower.
  • The December S&P’s had another quiet trading day as they have now closed within one point of the preceding day every day this week.
  • Traders are still expecting the market to take off because of QE3, but there is a growing consensus that the Fed may have issued the policy change too early and the stock market actually could see a decline over the coming weeks until noticeable effects begin to creep into the market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 14.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 80.25

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