KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 1780.30. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- December Gold generated fresh highs on Wednesday on a continuation rally from Tuesday although it settled back below the mid-range for the session.
- Expect stronger price action on Thursday and for gold to make new 2012 highs by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 55.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 08/19/12 @ 1.3040. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/12 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.3037 – 1.3685*.
- The December Euro FX recaptured some of its earlier losses on the day to close in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
- Thursday should have nominal price action that moves mostly higher as the risk markets remain trapped in limbo over whether Spain will request ECB assistance and the effectiveness of recent policy easing.
- Projected Daily Range: .0123
- Projected Weekly Range: .0301
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1449.25 or lower.
- The December S&P’s had another quiet trading day as they have now closed within one point of the preceding day every day this week.
- Traders are still expecting the market to take off because of QE3, but there is a growing consensus that the Fed may have issued the policy change too early and the stock market actually could see a decline over the coming weeks until noticeable effects begin to creep into the market.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 111.10. Downside Targets = 107.18 – 106.50.
- TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 111.10.
- November Brent Crude dropped sharply lower on Wednesday as small traders exited their positions on fear of getting popped again by HFTs while trading to within less than $1 of the downside price objective listed in Wednesday morning’s report.
- Brent should find strong support at the aforementioned downside targets before making a move back to near last week’s high.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.73
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.18
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.97. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/19/12 @ 94.27. Downside Targets = 89.28 – 86.44.
- November WTI Crude Oil followed Brent prices lower on Wednesday after an enormous build in supplies brought the market to within less than a $1 of generating new seven-week lows.
- Expect for WTI to make a break below $90 to run stops before finding additional support and making a move back to the upside.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.63
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.919. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/12 @ 2.865. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 2.737. Downside Target 90% achieved.
- October Natural Gas traded just five ticks through the mid-point of the downside targets on Wednesday after failing to hold an early morning short-covering rally as it moved back toward the session’s low, closing slightly lower on the day.
- Expect for NG to move back toward the weekly lows in early trading on Thursday before the storage numbers are released as it moves ever closer to achieving 100% of the downside target.
- Note: If new lows for the month are made below $2.647, the month end downward objective is $2.405.
- Projected Daily Range: .135
- Projected Weekly Range: .281
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
