KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1756.10. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1756.10 or lower.
- December Gold logged a strong rally in an attempt to regain Monday’s losses as buyers quickly snapped up contracts as the market traded near $1,750 as predicted in Tuesday morning’s report.
- Wednesday should allow gold to extend its gains from Tuesday and go after new 2012 highs above $1,792.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 55.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.3037 – 1.3685*.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3040. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3040 or lower.
- The December Euro FX sank lower in Tuesday trading due to a strong USD and concern over the Spain accepting ECB funds.
- The euro is long overdue for a Short Term correction and could drop as low as 1.2940 before any initial support returns to the market.
- Projected Daily Range: .0123
- Projected Weekly Range: .0301
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/18/12 @ 1449.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible Conservative confirmation of a top with a close @ 1449.25 or lower.
- The December S&Ps finished slightly lower on Tuesday in another very light trading session as traders seemed mostly unwilling to sell the market, even at such elevated prices, and quickly supported it under 1450.
- Although it may seem the stock market is extremely overbought, it is in our view anyway, fighting QE to Infinity and Beyond is something most large players are unwilling to do and the S&Ps should continue higher toward the 2012 Yearly Projection (initially established on 02/18/12) of 1512.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 111.49 or lower. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish on a close @ 111.10 or lower.
- November Brent Crude sank lower in Tuesday trading after failing to attract any buyers once it traded above Monday’s mid-range as the market sank lower in the second half day of trading.
- Should Brent break through $1111.50 it will generate new six-week lows and possibly extend the downside losses to $106.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.56
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.18
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/2012 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/2012 @ 97.17. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
- Inside compression day generated on 09/19/2012. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 94.97. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 94.97 or lower.
- November WTI Crude Oil continued its decline lower on Tuesday as, like Brent, it was unable to garner any momentum and was sold aggressively above the daily mid-range and closed at its lowest price in September.
- Tuesday’s weak technical price action suggest that this market should move lower to retest the four-week lows, however, expect for strong support to come into the market between $94.28-$93.34.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.21
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/2012 @ 2.919. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/2012 @ 2.865. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 2.755. Downside Target 85% achieved.
- October Natural Gas dropped sharply lower on Tuesday, closing at its lowest level in seven trading sessions and trading to within 5 cents of the weekly downside target of $2.702.
- As mentioned in yesterday’s report, because natural gas was able to exhibit a wide range and weak close (good for a short position), this market should continue lower toward the downside targets before finding any support just below $2.70.
- Projected Daily Range: .143
- Projected Weekly Range: .281
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
