Brent crude nears bearish reversal

ENERGIES

 

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/12 @ 111.99. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
  • Bearish ERVB Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Monday. TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 111.99.
    • November Brent Crude plummeted over $3.50 in less than 5 min of trading just before 1 pm CST as large HFT’s pushed prices back near the daily Support Bollinger Band.
    • Brent was somehow able to find some support at $111.50 and the lows set back 3 weeks ago and traders could look to pick up additional contracts at $112.15 with low risk trade entries for the rest of the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.65
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.18
  • Projected Monthly Range: 1305

 

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/2012 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/2012 @ 97.17. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
  • Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 94.97. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 94.97 or lower.
    • November WTI Crude Oil sank dramatically lower in the previously chronicled HFT issue that pushed the market nearly $5 lower in a matter of just a few minutes.
    • While rumors of an SPR release have been floating around for numerous weeks, current prices shouldn’t support such a move and look for strong bulls to use today’s drop as a Intermediate Term buying point as the market should move back near the $100 level towards the end of the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.61
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

 

Natural Gas (October):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/17/2012 @ 2.919. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/17/2012 @ 2.865. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
    • October Natural Gas continued lower in early trading on Monday before becoming stagnant throughout most of the session as it settled less than a penny off the day’s low.
    • Natural gas will need to break through last Monday’s OVB high of 2.847 convincingly if it is to reach the initial downside objective 2.778.
  • Projected Daily Range: .126
  • Projected Weekly Range: .281
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665

 

METALS

 

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1756.10. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1756.10 or lower.
    • December Gold dropped lower in electronic trading as a sharp drop in crude oil sent commodity prices tumbling and drug gold down $15 along the way.
    • If there is any follow through on Tuesday to Monday’s technical decline, look for buyers to return to the market and bid the market back higher should gold fall below $1750/oz.
  • Projected Daily Range: 30.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 55.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 126.40

 

CURRENCIES

 

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.3037 – 1.3685*.
  • New highs made on current move Monday @ 1.3183. Upside Target over 265% achieved.
    • The December Euro FX settled slightly lower in what was a rather quiet trading day compared to the rest of the risk assets as the market is seemingly trying to catch its breath from its large gains over the past 2 weeks.
    • Traders should expect for the euro to work its way back lower in early trading this week, possibly back below 1.30 before buyers return to the market.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0152
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0301
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0532

 

INDEXES

 

E-Mini S&P (December):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 1409.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
  • AVRCB (Almost VRCB) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1449.25. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1449.25 or lower.
    • The December S&P’s settled back lower on Monday in what was for the most part a quiet trading session as the stock market was coming off its “sugar high” from QE3.
    • Overall, expect the S&P’s to continue to rise over the next month up until the election and use any 3-5 day pullbacks as opportunities to add to or join in a long position.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 80.25

 

 

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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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