KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/11/12 @ 114.59. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
- November Brent Crude once again traded to new 4+ month highs on Friday before settling back below the daily mid-range as traders looked to take profits going into the weekend.
- Look for Brent to have a slight pullback in early trading this week to $115.34 before continuing its run higher toward our upside targets.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.18
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/12 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/12 @ 97.17. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 100.73. Upside Target 85% achieved.
- November WTI Crude Oil broke out to the upside in early Friday trading as it moved above $100 for the first time in more than four months but lost ground going into the weekend as traders seemed to take profits.
- After trading to within less than $1 of our second upside target on Friday, expect WTI to face some resistance at current levels before breaking through to our maximum Q3 objective of $105.43.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.07
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/11/12 @ 2.889. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/12 @ 2.889. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
- C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.919. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.919 or lower.
- October Natural Gas sank lower on Friday as expected to close at its lowest level since last Monday as this market looks tapped out above $3.
- Expect natural gas to decline further this week down to a previously confirmed support zone of $2.778 – $2.705.
- Projected Daily Range: .123
- Projected Weekly Range: .281
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1765.60 – 1809.10.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1780.20. Upside Target over 205% achieved.
- December Gold logged a small gain on Friday as the market seemingly tried to catch its breath after an explosive Thursday session.
- Although gold may see some modest 1-3 day corrections in the coming month, these should be viewed as buying opportunities as the precious metal should track down new all-time highs by year’s end above $2,000.
- Projected Daily Range: 29.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 55.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.3037 – 1.3685*.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1.3179. Upside Target over 250% achieved.
- The December Euro FX continued its explosive movement higher on Friday as it traded at its highest level since early May while closing outside the WEEKLY Resistance Bollinger Band for the first time in over 16 months.
- Based on the current price action and bullish volatility, the euro should make a charge at new 2012 highs and go after a Major Term Target of 1.3685.
- Projected Daily Range: .0127
- Projected Weekly Range: .0301
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 1409.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1468.00. Upside Targets over 110% achieved.
- The December S&P’s continued higher on Friday before a round of profit taking dropped the market back to its daily mid-range.
- Look for the S&P’s to move higher next week back above 1485 until running into resistance just below 1490 and trading out to the side.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
