Oil targets $105 after QE3 announcement

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 09/17/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/11/12 @ 114.59. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
  • November Brent Crude once again traded to new 4+ month highs on Friday before settling back below the daily mid-range as traders looked to take profits going into the weekend.
  • Look for Brent to have a slight pullback in early trading this week to $115.34 before continuing its run higher toward our upside targets.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.18
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 1305

WTI Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/12 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/12 @ 97.17. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 100.73. Upside Target 85% achieved.
  • November WTI Crude Oil broke out to the upside in early Friday trading as it moved above $100 for the first time in more than four months but lost ground going into the weekend as traders seemed to take profits.
  • After trading to within less than $1 of our second upside target on Friday, expect WTI to face some resistance at current levels before breaking through to our maximum Q3 objective of $105.43.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.07
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.42
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

Natural Gas (October):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/11/12 @ 2.889. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/12 @ 2.889. Downside Targets = 2.778 – 2.705.
  • C < LOHB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.919. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 2.919 or lower.
  • October Natural Gas sank lower on Friday as expected to close at its lowest level since last Monday as this market looks tapped out above $3.
  • Expect natural gas to decline further this week down to a previously confirmed support zone of $2.778 – $2.705.
  • Projected Daily Range: .123
  • Projected Weekly Range: .281
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665

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