KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/11/12 @ 114.59. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
- BULLISH AOVB (Almost Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new highs on current move @ 116.89.
- November Brent Crude generated new four-month highs on Thursday upon the announcement on QE3 that led to a gain in all “risk” market assets but spent the afternoon trading just back inside the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Currently Brent is trading within less than a $3.50 range for the week and unless it trades to $116.97 it will generate another weekly VRCB just inside our upside resistance price zone. However, trading above $117 should bring our upside targets into play next 5-7 days.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.77
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/2012 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/2012 @ 97.17. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 98.58.
- October WTI crude oil saw an extremely volatile trading session with the announcement of QE3 and closed at their highest level in four months.
- WTI has had a tough time breaking through the $98 trading range over the last month but with the addition of QE3 should run stops above $100 toward the upside objective of $101.56.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.71
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/2012 @ 2.761. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/07/2012 @ 2.682. Downside Targets = 2.563 – 2.484.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 3.070. Upside Target over 125% achieved.
- October Natural Gas was able to just squeeze out new highs before dropping sharply because of a larger than expected injection of supply inventories but finished the session just off the highs because of a weak USD in large part to QE3.
- Bullish sentiment is beginning to take hold in this market and should this market break below Wednesday’s low, look for buyers to return to the market near Monday’s high of 2.847.
- Projected Daily Range: .145
- Projected Weekly Range: .269
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1721.90 – 1765.60.
- BULLISH EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new 6 month highs on current move @ 1775.00. Upside Target over 200% achieved.
- December Gold was able to explode higher on Thursday following the announcement of QE3 which sparked a furious buying rally as it overachieved the weekly upside target of $1,765.60.
- As mentioned in Thursday morning’s report, with confirmation of QE3, investors should look for gold to continue its move higher in the short term to $1,809.10 and keep their eyes on our year end price target of $2,037.90 - $2,051.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 29.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.3037.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1.3004. Upside Target over 200% achieved.
- The September Euro FX traded to within 7 ticks of the weekly upside projection mentioned in Wednesday evening’s report as it traded above 1.30 for the first time in 4 months.
- The Fed’s decision to implement further QE measures bolstered all of the “risk” markets today and supports a continued movement to the upside for the Euro to 1.3037- 1.3142 before running into Short Term resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: .0123
- Projected Weekly Range: .0262
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 1409.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- BULLISH ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new 2012 highs @ 1464.25. Upside Target over 105% achieved
- The September S&Ps exploded higher in Thursday trading on the heels of the FOMC’s decision to lay out QE3 and catapulted the indexes to their highest trading levels since the first week of 2008.
- Although both initial Short Term and Intermediate Term objectives have been reached, the markets recent price action suggests an extension of these gains pointing toward our year end S&P objective of 1512.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
