Oil eyeing $100 after QE3 push

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 09/14/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (November):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/11/12 @ 114.59. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
  • BULLISH AOVB (Almost Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Thursday making new highs on current move @ 116.89.
  • November Brent Crude generated new four-month highs on Thursday upon the announcement on QE3 that led to a gain in all “risk” market assets but spent the afternoon trading just back inside the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
  • Currently Brent is trading within less than a $3.50 range for the week and unless it trades to $116.97 it will generate another weekly VRCB just inside our upside resistance price zone. However, trading above $117 should bring our upside targets into play next 5-7 days.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.77
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 1305

WTI Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/2012 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/2012 @ 97.17. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 98.58.
  • October WTI crude oil saw an extremely volatile trading session with the announcement of QE3 and closed at their highest level in four months.
  • WTI has had a tough time breaking through the $98 trading range over the last month but with the addition of QE3 should run stops above $100 toward the upside objective of $101.56.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.71
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

Natural Gas (October):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/2012 @ 2.761. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/07/2012 @ 2.682. Downside Targets = 2.563 – 2.484.
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 3.070. Upside Target over 125% achieved.
  • October Natural Gas was able to just squeeze out new highs before dropping sharply because of a larger than expected injection of supply inventories but finished the session just off the highs because of a weak USD in large part to QE3.
  • Bullish sentiment is beginning to take hold in this market and should this market break below Wednesday’s low, look for buyers to return to the market near Monday’s high of 2.847.
  • Projected Daily Range: .145
  • Projected Weekly Range: .269
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665

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