Natural gas breakout nears key Fibonacci level

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 09/12/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1721.90 – 1765.60.
  • 2nd consecutive inside compression day generated on Tuesday.
  • December Gold was able to log a modest gain on Tuesday ahead of the first of the week’s big economic policy decisions coming out of Germany in what was another tight trading session.
  • After such an incredible run over the last month and looming uncertainty of global and domestic monetary policy, it would be wise to tighten up on long positions to protect against a large hit should the Fed not lay out QE3.
  • Projected Daily Range: 28.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 57.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 126.40

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (September):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2797.
  • Bullish AOVB (Almost Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday making new highs on current move @ 1.2872. Upside Target over 150% achieved.
  • The September Euro FX roared back to the upside on Tuesday after bulls returned to the market after shaking off concerns over Germany’s likelihood of approving the legality of the ECB bond buying program.
  • Should the bulls be correct in regards to tomorrows ruling, the Euro could catapult back through 1.30 to 1.3037.
  • On the other hand, should Germany rule that the ECB’s plan is illegal; the euro would face an enormous amount of short sellers coming into the market and drop the FX currency back near the 1.25 level.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0113
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0262
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0532

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (September):  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 1409.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1425.50. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1425.50 or lower.
  • The September S&P’s fought off overnight losses to nearly generate a daily OVB before losing some of its momentum heading into the close as it settled back within the range of the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
  • Tuesday’s price action supports a continuation of recent gains and unless this market can close below 1425.50, look for an extended move higher to new contract highs and the Intermediate Term upside objective of 1446.25.
  • Projected Daily Range: 12.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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