KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (November):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/11/12 @ 114.59. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday.
- November Brent Crude spent most of Tuesday’s session within less than a $1.00 trading range as concerns over the legality of the ECB’s bond-buying program kept investors on the sidelines.
- Should the German court approve the legality of the ECB’s program, it should provide the fundamental support to go along with the technical indicators that are suggesting a move markedly higher to the $124 price target.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.84
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 1305
WTI Crude Oil (October):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/12 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/12 @ 97.17. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
- DOUBLE VRCB generated on Tuesday.
- October WTI Crude Oil continued higher throughout Tuesday trading although in a very narrow range while closing at its second highest price level in four months.
- With both EIA storage data being unveiled tomorrow morning and oversees policy action in the market tomorrow, expect WTI’s recent bullish price action to drive the market higher in early trading.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.16
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.76
Natural Gas (October):
- Short Term Trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/11/12 @ 2.889. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/11/12 @ 2.889. Downside Targets = 2.563 – 2.484.
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday. Parrish Hicks proprietary confirmation of a bottom @ 2.889. Upside Targets already over 105% achieved.
- October Natural Gas continued its explosive bullish price action on Tuesday as it traded through $3.00 and closed outside the daily Resistance Bollinger Band while stopping just shy of the 61.8% Fib retracement price as measured from the 07/31 high to the 08/29 low.
- With the current WEEKLY RANGE more than 331% extended in terms of rate of change, look for the upside price target of $3.066 listed in Tuesday morning’s report to provide a price target to take profits for the longs and strong bears to re-enter the market.
- Projected Daily Range: .141
- Projected Weekly Range: .269
- Projected Monthly Range: .665
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 1679.40. Upside Targets = 1721.90 – 1765.60.
- 2nd consecutive inside compression day generated on Tuesday.
- December Gold was able to log a modest gain on Tuesday ahead of the first of the week’s big economic policy decisions coming out of Germany in what was another tight trading session.
- After such an incredible run over the last month and looming uncertainty of global and domestic monetary policy, it would be wise to tighten up on long positions to protect against a large hit should the Fed not lay out QE3.
- Projected Daily Range: 28.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 126.40
Euro FX (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 08/14/2012 @ 1.2379. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/21/2012 @ 1.2451. Upside Targets = 1.2623 – 1.2797.
- Bullish AOVB (Almost Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday making new highs on current move @ 1.2872. Upside Target over 150% achieved.
- The September Euro FX roared back to the upside on Tuesday after bulls returned to the market after shaking off concerns over Germany’s likelihood of approving the legality of the ECB bond buying program.
- Should the bulls be correct in regards to tomorrows ruling, the Euro could catapult back through 1.30 to 1.3037.
- On the other hand, should Germany rule that the ECB’s plan is illegal; the euro would face an enormous amount of short sellers coming into the market and drop the FX currency back near the 1.25 level.
- Projected Daily Range: .0113
- Projected Weekly Range: .0262
- Projected Monthly Range: .0532
E-Mini S&P (September):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 1409.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 09/06/12 @ 1425.00. Upside Targets = 1446.25 – 1460.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1425.50. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1425.50 or lower.
- The September S&P’s fought off overnight losses to nearly generate a daily OVB before losing some of its momentum heading into the close as it settled back within the range of the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Tuesday’s price action supports a continuation of recent gains and unless this market can close below 1425.50, look for an extended move higher to new contract highs and the Intermediate Term upside objective of 1446.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 12.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 80.25
