Oil looking for bullish confirmation later in week

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 09/11/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 112.72. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
  • VRCB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 114.59.
  • November Brent Crude had a very thin trading session on Monday as the contract expiration had volume split between itself and October but nonetheless finished the session strong.
  • Once new highs for the week are made, look for Brent to extend its gains above $115 and challenge the highs made in the last 3 weeks as it looks to tackle the $120 threshold once again.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.07
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 1305

WTI Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/12 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/12 @ 94.62. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
  • VRCB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 96.93 or higher.
  • October WTI Crude Oil traded just $0.09 below the support price listed in the Monday report before moving back higher to spend the rest of the session near the day’s high.
  • With the current amount of technical support that is in the market WTI should move decisively higher over the coming days in accordance to the German courts ratifying the legality of the ECB bond buying program on Wednesday followed by the impact of FOMC announcement on Thursday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.36
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

Natural Gas (October):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 2.761. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/07/12 @ 2.682. Downside Targets = 2.563 – 2.484.
  • Bullish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Monday after making new lows on the current move @ 2.647.
  • October Natural Gas exploded higher in late afternoon trading just before the close of the pit session after finding substantial support just below the mid-range of the 08/29 OVB.
  • Today’s late price action caught many off guard and should natural gas break through last week’s high of $2.888 it would reverse the Short Term trend from bearish to bullish and signal a possible move back above $3 to $3.066.
  • Projected Daily Range: .114
  • Projected Weekly Range: .269
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665

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