Oil finds support, moves toward target $97.71

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 09/10/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/12 @ 112.72. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 08/31/12 @ 114.57. Upside Target = 122.19 – 124.11.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 112.72 or lower.
  • October Brent Crude bounced around amid a volatile trading session on Friday as hopes of more Fed easing overruled the markets uncertainty of an SPR release and led Brent to finish back near the weekly mid-range.
  • While the “risk” markets will ultimately be waiting for the FOMC announcement on Thursday to direct market direction for the rest of the month, look for Brent to follow through on Friday’s bullish price action and move back above $115.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.19
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 1305

WTI Crude Oil (October):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 09/04/12 @ 96.93. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 08/30/12 @ 94.62. Upside Targets = 100.04 – 101.56.
  • October WTI Crude Oil firmly held the multi-week support zone just above $94 on Friday as Friday mornings report projected and rallied more than $2.50 higher throughout the session to close in the upper 90% of the day’s range.
  • Expect continued support in the market to return at $95.43 and then move higher to challenge last week’s high of $97.71.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.52
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.76

Natural Gas (October):

  • Short Term Trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 09/06/2012 @ 2.761. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 09/07/2012 @ 2.682. Downside Targets = 2.563 – 2.484.
  • October Natural Gas continued lower on Friday to trade back below $2.70 as projected as early as last Wednesday morning and generated its lowest weekly close since June 22.
  • Expect natural gas to continue to work its way lower to the aforementioned downside targets of $2.563 – $2.484.
  • Projected Daily Range: .104
  • Projected Weekly Range: .269
  • Projected Monthly Range: .665

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